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The holiday shopping season hasn’t even officially begun, yet pessimism is already prevailing: Some experts have predicted this year’s sales increase will be the worst since 2009, the year the recession officially ended. Major retailers such as Walmart and Best Buy are warning investors the current quarter will be soft. Deep, early discounts could also negatively affect retailers' bottom line. The National Retail Federation expects 33 million people will shop online and in stores on Black Friday.